●China is using climate policy to push through domestic reforms.中国以环境政策推动国内改革
When world leaders gathered in Paris to discuss cutting planet-heating emissions, a pall of smog hung over Beijing. In parts of the capital levels of fine particulate matter reached 30 times the limit deemed safe. Though air pollution and climate change are different things, Chinese citydwellers think of them in the same, poisoned breath. The murky skies seemed irreconcilable with the bright intentions promised in France.
当各国领导人齐聚巴黎讨论有关减少温室气体排放的问题,北京被厚厚的雾霾笼罩。在首都的某些地方,大气细颗粒物的含量达到了最低安全指标的30倍。尽管空气污染和气候变化不是一件事,但生活在城市的中国居民认为他们都会在我们呼吸的过程中毒害我们的健康。灰蒙蒙的天空似乎和领导人在法国所承诺的美好意愿不太相符。
Yet a marked change has taken place in China’s official thinking. Where once China viewed international climate talks as a conspiracy to constrain its economy, it now sees a global agreement as helpful to its own development.
然而中国官员的思维模式开始有了显著的变化。曾经中国认为国际气候谈判是一场阻碍其发展的鸿门宴,现在中国领导人将全球气候协议看成是有助其发展的一种推动。
China accounts for two-thirds of the world’s increase in the carbon dioxide emitted since 2000. It has come a long way in recognising the problem. When China first joined international climate talks, the environment was just a minor branch of foreign policy. The ministry for environmental protection had no policymaking powers until 2008. Only in 2012 did public pressure force cities to publish air-pollution data.
自2000年以来,全球三分之二二氧化碳排放量的增长量都来自中国。而中国在很长一段时间后才开始正视这个问题。当中国第一次参加国际气候谈判时,环境问题仅仅只是其外交政策的一个小分支。环境保护部在2008年以前都没有制定政策的权利。而出于公众舆论的压力,各市政府在2012年才公布了空气污染数据。
Yet today China pledges to cap carbon emissions by 2030 (reversing its former position that, as a developing power, it should not be bound to an absolute reduction); and it says it will cut its carbon intensity (that is, emissions per unit of GDP) by a fifth, as well as increase by the same amount the electricity generated from sources other than fossil fuels. The latest five-year plan, a blueprint for the Communist Party’s intentions that was unveiled last month, contains clear policy prescriptions for making economic development more environmentally friendly.
但是中国决定在2030年前控制碳排放(该决定与中国过往的立场完全不同,中国之前的立场是作为发展中国家的中国不应该被规定做出绝对数目的减排目标),宣布大幅减少碳浓度(即每单位GDP的排放量)达五分之一,同时中国将增加五分之一用除化石燃料以外的清洁能源来发电的电量。在上个月最新出炉的五年计划包含着共产党对中国未来的规划,其中明确包含促使经济更环保发展的政策。
●There’s more 更多内容
Right after the Paris summit, however it ends, China is expected to make more promises in a new document, co-written by international experts, that presents a far-reaching programme of how China should clean up its act. It is based on models that account for both economic and political viability. On top of existing plans, such as launching a national emissions-trading scheme in 2017, the government may even outline proposals for a carbon tax, something that has eluded many prosperous countries in the West.
不管过程如何,各国在巴黎峰会上通过了一份由各国专家共同撰写的文件,其中要求中国在环境问题上给出更多的承诺,同时该文件中还有一个计划长远的项目用以指导中国该如何规范其行为。该文件是基于那些给出经济可行性和政治可行性的模型。在现存计划之外,如2017年开始运行的全国碳排放交易系统,中国政府甚至开始拟定征收碳排放税,而在许多发达的西方国家,这都是一件避而不谈的事。
The big question is why China is now so serious about climate change. The answer is not that Communist leaders are newly converted econuts. Rather, they want to use environmental concerns to rally domestic support for difficult reforms that would sustain growth in the coming decades. Since a global slowdown in 2008 it has become clear that to continue growing, China must move its economy away from construction and energy-intensive industry towards services. At the same time, China faces an energy crunch. For instance, in recent years China has been a net importer of coal, which generates two-thirds of China’s electricity. It all argues for growth plans that involve less carbon.
问题是中国为什么现在对气候变化如此重视?答案不是因为共产党领导人向环境保护论低头。相反,中国领导人希望用环境问题来召集国内支持,增援改革瓶颈,维持接下来几十年的经济增长。自2008年全球经济增长放缓以来,中国领导人开始明白,要实现经济的持续增长,中国经济需要摆脱建筑业密集型和能源密集型的特点,转向服务集中型经济。与此同时,中国面临能源枯竭问题。举个例子,近几年中国是煤炭净进口国,而煤炭发电量占中国总发电量的三分之二。这些都让低碳经济增长计划成为讨论热点。
This is where signing international accords, such as the one hoped for in Paris, come in, for they will help the government fight entrenched interests at home. Observers see a parallel with China’s joining the World Trade Organisation in 2001. It allowed leaders to push through internal economic reform against fierce domestic opposition. In the same way, a global climate treaty should help it take tough measures for restructuring the economy.
正如巴黎气候大会所预设达成的协议一样,签署这些国际协议能够让各国政府更有利地对抗国内根深蒂固的利益集团。有分析人士认为中国2001年加入世贸组织的行为也同样有着这一目的。此举让中国领导人能够在强烈的国内反对声音中继续推动内部经济改革。同样,全球性的气候条约能够使得一些重构经济的硬措施成为可能。